The Ledger of Forecasts
Archive
- Resolved
- 36
- Brier, ours
- 0.222
- Brier, market
- 0.229
- Skill
- +2.8%
The Brier score is the mean squared distance between the probability assigned and the outcome; lower is better, and a constant fifty per cent. scores 0.250. Directionally correct in 26 of 36 questions, a figure reported but not pursued. July MMXXVI remains the worst month on record; see Calibration Before Conviction.
Plate the First
Calibration since Inception
- Ours
- Market
Table the First
By Outlook
| Outlook | N | Ours | Market | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 10 | 0.158 | 0.167 | +5.5% |
| August 2026 | 10 | 0.193 | 0.247 | +21.8% |
| July 2026 | 8 | 0.402 | 0.316 | −27.2% |
| June 2026 | 8 | 0.159 | 0.195 | +18.6% |
Ledger I
September 2026
| Question | Ours | Market | Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Does aggregate dollar liquidity expand through September? | 50% | 45% | Yes | 0.250▲ |
Does one-month realized equity volatility exceed the implied level priced on 1 September? | 39% | 33% | No | 0.152▽ |
By 30 September, do rates markets price at least one additional policy cut before year-end? | 57% | 61% | Yes | 0.185▽ |
Does systematic equity positioning exceed the 75th percentile of its two-year range? | 64% | 52% | Yes | 0.130▲ |
Does the 2s10s Treasury curve steepen by more than 15 basis points over the month? | 41% | 40% | No | 0.168▽ |
Do money-market funds record a net outflow for the month? | 26% | 24% | No | 0.068▽ |
Does the high-yield spread widen more than 40 basis points at any point in September? | 21% | 20% | No | 0.044▽ |
Does the trade-weighted dollar close September below its August close? | 50% | 48% | Yes | 0.250▲ |
Does Brent crude trade above its 200-day average on 30 September? | 47% | 50% | No | 0.221▲ |
Does the 60-day equity–bond correlation turn positive? | 33% | 31% | No | 0.109▽ |
Ledger II
August 2026
| Question | Ours | Market | Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Does aggregate dollar liquidity expand through August? | 38% | 47% | No | 0.144▲ |
Does one-month realized equity volatility exceed the implied level priced on 1 August? Post-July recalibration raised tail estimates. Correct direction, still under-confident. | 46% | 30% | Yes | 0.292▲ |
Does systematic equity positioning exceed the 75th percentile of its two-year range? | 58% | 35% | Yes | 0.176▲ |
By 31 August, do rates markets price at least one additional policy cut before year-end? | 61% | 55% | Yes | 0.152▲ |
Does the 2s10s Treasury curve steepen by more than 15 basis points over the month? | 52% | 38% | No | 0.270▽ |
Does the high-yield spread widen more than 40 basis points at any point in August? | 34% | 26% | No | 0.116▽ |
Does the trade-weighted dollar close August below its July close? | 44% | 51% | Yes | 0.314▽ |
Does Brent crude trade above its 200-day average on 31 August? | 42% | 48% | No | 0.176▲ |
Do money-market funds record a net outflow for the month? | 18% | 21% | No | 0.032▲ |
Does the 60-day equity–bond correlation turn positive? | 49% | 36% | Yes | 0.260▲ |
Ledger III
July 2026
| Question | Ours | Market | Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Does aggregate dollar liquidity expand through July? The central failure of July. See Calibration Before Conviction. | 71% | 52% | No | 0.504▽ |
Does one-month realized equity volatility exceed the implied level priced on 1 July? Ensemble was more complacent than the market. | 22% | 28% | Yes | 0.608▽ |
Does systematic equity positioning exceed the 75th percentile of its two-year range? Correlated with the liquidity failure; counted as one error, scored as two. | 74% | 49% | No | 0.548▽ |
Does the high-yield spread widen more than 40 basis points at any point in July? | 12% | 19% | Yes | 0.774▽ |
By 31 July, do rates markets price at least one additional policy cut before year-end? | 39% | 44% | No | 0.152▲ |
Does the trade-weighted dollar close July below its June close? | 56% | 50% | Yes | 0.194▲ |
Does the 2s10s Treasury curve steepen by more than 15 basis points over the month? | 31% | 34% | No | 0.096▲ |
Does Brent crude trade above its 200-day average on 31 July? | 58% | 53% | No | 0.336▽ |
Ledger IV
June 2026
| Question | Ours | Market | Outcome | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Does aggregate dollar liquidity expand through June? | 66% | 49% | Yes | 0.116▲ |
Does one-month realized equity volatility exceed the implied level priced on 1 June? | 26% | 30% | No | 0.068▲ |
Does systematic equity positioning exceed the 75th percentile of its two-year range? | 72% | 44% | Yes | 0.078▲ |
Does the high-yield spread widen more than 40 basis points at any point in June? | 14% | 17% | No | 0.020▲ |
By 30 June, do rates markets price at least one additional policy cut before year-end? | 47% | 41% | No | 0.221▽ |
Does the trade-weighted dollar close June below its May close? | 62% | 48% | Yes | 0.144▲ |
Does the 2s10s Treasury curve steepen by more than 15 basis points over the month? | 28% | 36% | No | 0.078▲ |
Does Brent crude trade above its 200-day average on 30 June? Supply model failure. Energy has been down-weighted since. | 74% | 55% | No | 0.548▽ |
▲ scored better than the market · ▽ scored worse.