Index of Dispatches
Research
Dispatches on uncertainty, markets, autonomous systems and the machinery of decisions.
- NDI Monthly Outlook: October 2026Ten questions for October. Liquidity improves, positioning crowds, and the hedge stops hedging.By Forecasting · 8 minutes’ readingRead →
- Models Fail Before Narratives DoOn regime change, model decay and the long half-life of a good story.By NDI Research · 4 minutes’ readingRead →
- Execution Is Part of IntelligenceA forecast that cannot be acted upon is an opinion with decimal places.By Execution · 3 minutes’ readingRead →
- NDI Monthly Outlook: September 2026A month of deliberate agreement. The system repairs, and waits to be right before it disagrees again.By Forecasting · 6 minutes’ readingRead →
- Calibration Before ConvictionA post-mortem on July. Our probability was wrong. More importantly, it was badly calibrated.By Audit · 4 minutes’ readingRead →
- The Consensus GapMeasuring the distance between what everyone expects and what we believe — and why distance is never enough.By NDI Research · 3 minutes’ readingRead →
- Building a Non-Default Monthly OutlookHow we describe a month without ever naming a price target.By Forecasting · 3 minutes’ readingRead →
- When Agents DisagreeWe do not build one model that knows. We build several that argue, and we listen to the argument.By NDI Research · 3 minutes’ readingRead →
- Consensus Is a PositionA belief held by everyone stops being a belief. It becomes inventory.By NDI Research · 3 minutes’ readingRead →
- Forecasting Without PredictionA point estimate is a distribution with the interesting parts removed.By NDI Research · 4 minutes’ readingRead →